cooter50
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Re: So if you see what a certain theory predicted happening, right before your own eyes ...
A defined thorn in my side developed by our Illustrious EPA as to pollutants comes to mind. As I was being 'educated' as to emissions controls device inspections some 24 years ago a EPA rep was a guest speaker.
It was his forthcoming speech during our State sponsored classes that stuck the hardest'
He noted that Nitrogen Oxides were found so extremely harmful the EPA was making every effort to reduce the overall levels to ZERO. He was asked by myself and others as to how they could state that as Nature produced more than human(roughly 3 times more in those days estimations). His response was nature could not effect more than humans where the levels Could be reduced to zero. This 'person' was a "Environmental Science College Major" where "his education was well beyond that which we had been taught". That started the junk science is government in action basis for me.
Today's 'estimates' as to natural Nitrous Oxides emissions is from 20-90 millions tons, an wide figured number as 'they have not the technology to finitely determine natural levels'(I call Bullshit on that) where human levels are 'estimated' at a flat 24 additional million tons.
https://scied.ucar.edu/nitrogen-oxides
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9/21/2017, 12:29 pm
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mais oui
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Re: So if you see what a certain theory predicted happening, right before your own eyes ...
surely even you (pedant of the year 2000 to the present day)can see that what he was refering to reducing made made emissions to zero?
the natural levels of all sorts of chemicals have been pretty much constant over the recent era (Holocene) the planet has all sorts of ways of keeping things in balance, what it cannot cope with is us dumping a gazzillion tons of what ever the industrial chemical of the day happends to be into the environment.
--- HAPPINESS, THE IGNOBLE LIFE GOAL OF THE ILLITERATE
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9/21/2017, 12:35 pm
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John1959
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Re: So if you see what a certain theory predicted happening, right before your own eyes ...
Getting back to the original topic;
We have seen massive damage in Texas.
We have seen massive damage in Florida.
We have seen massive damage in Puerto Rico.
3 different hurricanes within 2 months.
Just as scientists have warned - more intense hurricanes.
Climate change doesn't cause hurricanes—they happen whenever the conditions are right. But because warm water feeds the growing storms, hurricanes are likely to be more intense as the planet heats up.
http://www.popsci.com/predicting-intensity-hurricanes-climate-change#page-6
--- “I do not believe in the general promiscuous toting of guns. I think it should be sharply restricted and only under licenses.” - NRA president Karl T. Frederick, 1938
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9/21/2017, 2:16 pm
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mais oui
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Re: So if you see what a certain theory predicted happening, right before your own eyes ...
John in all fairness that argument doest stack up,
there were -
2 cat 5 hurricanes in 1932
2 in 1933
2 in 1961
4 in 2005
2 in 2007
2 in 2017 ('Irma' and 'Maria')
so to get two in a season is not all that unusual especially since there hasnt been any years with more than 1 hurricane for a decade.
Even if you look at the much more common cat 4 hurricanes you find
2 in 1915
4 in 1926
2 in 1932
3 in 1933
2 in 1935
2 in 1944
2 in 1948
3 in 1950
2 in 1951
2 in 1955
3 in 1958
2 in 1961
4 in 1964
2 in 1978
2 in 1988
3 in 1995
there is however some evidence of a recent rise in the frequency of Atlantic hurricanes
2 in 1996
5 in 1999
2 in 2000
2 in 2001
3 in 2004
4 in 2008
4 in 2010
2 in 2011
2 in 2017
Last edited by mais oui, 9/21/2017, 3:15 pm
--- HAPPINESS, THE IGNOBLE LIFE GOAL OF THE ILLITERATE
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9/21/2017, 3:12 pm
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Geezess
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Re: So if you see what a certain theory predicted happening, right before your own eyes ...
"there is however some evidence of a recent rise in the frequency of Atlantic hurricanes
2 in 1996
5 in 1999
2 in 2000
2 in 2001
3 in 2004
4 in 2008
4 in 2010
2 in 2011
2 in 2017"
Huh ?
That is not accurate data.
Try
2017 ATLANTIC STORMS
Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harvey Irma Jose Katia Lee
Maria
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9/21/2017, 4:15 pm
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mais oui
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Re: So if you see what a certain theory predicted happening, right before your own eyes ...
quote: 2017 ATLANTIC STORMS
Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harvey Irma Jose Katia Lee
Maria
My post got a bit scrambled - I tried to fix it twice but gave up, the lists are
(list 1) years with more than 1 cat 5 hurricane
(list 2) years with more than 1 cat 4 hurricane
Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Jose were not hurricanes
Franklin was a cat 1
Gert cat 2
listing however many tropical storms does not demonstrate that hurricanes are becoming more severe which was the claim
quote: John said
Just as scientists have warned - more intense hurricanes
--- HAPPINESS, THE IGNOBLE LIFE GOAL OF THE ILLITERATE
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9/21/2017, 4:22 pm
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Geezess
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Re: So if you see what a certain theory predicted happening, right before your own eyes ...
Relative to what was predicted ... both increased frequency and more powerful storms as part of more extreme weather events in general, you need to count all the named storms given any storm might become a hurricane
How else is there to reflect increased frequency ?
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9/21/2017, 5:01 pm
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mais oui
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Re: So if you see what a certain theory predicted happening, right before your own eyes ...
quote: you need to count all the named storms given any storm might become a hurricane
whereas any storm might become a hurricane we know that Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don and Emily have 'died' without ever becoming hurricanes and that Franklin and Gert 'died' without ever becoming cat 4 or cat 5 hurricanes so there is no point in mentioning Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don Emily, Franklin or Gert in a discussion about serious hurricanes
--- HAPPINESS, THE IGNOBLE LIFE GOAL OF THE ILLITERATE
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9/21/2017, 5:08 pm
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cooter50
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Re: So if you see what a certain theory predicted happening, right before your own eyes ...
quote: Geezess wrote:
"there is however some evidence of a recent rise in the frequency of Atlantic hurricanes
2 in 1996
5 in 1999
2 in 2000
2 in 2001
3 in 2004
4 in 2008
4 in 2010
2 in 2011
2 in 2017"
Huh ?
That is not accurate data.
Try
2017 ATLANTIC STORMS
Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harvey Irma Jose Katia Lee
Maria
And there is that evil caveat, Of SEEN levels of hurricane. There were no satellite cameras in 1950, or 1940 or anytime prior to the late 20th century, there could have been major cat 3 or 4 hurricane that never made landfall and did not show up on ship logs as to documentations. There is evidence of severity after the late 1900's but only since the satellite industry influences.
So Chicken Little as your sky falls from all this newly acquired data where is the data streams prior to 1900? No trend is set on less than a few hundred years data lines.
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9/21/2017, 7:11 pm
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mais oui
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Re: So if you see what a certain theory predicted happening, right before your own eyes ...
quote: There were no satellite cameras in 1950, or 1940 or anytime prior to the late 20th century, there could have been major cat 3 or 4 hurricane that never made landfall and did not show up on ship logs as to documentations
I think that you can be pretty sure that most of the cat 4 and cat 5 post 1940 would have been reported
Last edited by mais oui, 9/21/2017, 7:28 pm
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9/21/2017, 7:28 pm
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