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mais oui Profile
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Re: So if you see what a certain theory predicted happening, right before your own eyes ...


 
quote:

impossible to state flatly we are seeing the worst or the only Cat 4 or 5 storms to have existed or the level they have existed



If this is addressed to me then you are making claims about what I said that I didnt make.

the chart I posted only goes back to 1850 it doesnt cover the 1700s or even the first half of the 1800s.

Maritime weather forcasting has been in existance since 1834 and was well advanced by 1865

If you think that I have access to every ships log that ever sailed the atlantic then you are mistaken, if you think that even if I had access that I would plough through them you are deluded.





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9/22/2017, 2:39 pm Link to this post PM mais oui Blog
 
John1959 Profile
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Re: So if you see what a certain theory predicted happening, right before your own eyes ...


quote:

mais oui wrote:

John in all fairness that argument doest stack up,



I wasn't talking about the number of hurricanes per year but the damage caused.

And judging them simply on their category can be misleading.

Show me a list of years where there was massive destruction 3 or more times by different hurricanes.


So here's a fact ;

Since 1966, there have been 18 entire hurricane seasons that didn't generate as much total energy as Irma did.
http://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-irma-weather-meteorology-records-2017-9


In other words, one hurricane - Irma - produced more energy than many entire seasons of hurricanes.

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“I do not believe in the general promiscuous toting of guns. I think it should be sharply restricted and only under licenses.” - NRA president Karl T. Frederick, 1938
9/22/2017, 3:22 pm Link to this post PM John1959 Blog
 
Geezess Profile
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Re: So if you see what a certain theory predicted happening, right before your own eyes ...


quote:

cooter50 wrote:

quote:

Geezess wrote:

"there is however some evidence of a recent rise in the frequency of Atlantic hurricanes
2 in 1996
5 in 1999
2 in 2000
2 in 2001
3 in 2004
4 in 2008
4 in 2010
2 in 2011
2 in 2017"

Huh ?
That is not accurate data.

Try
2017 ATLANTIC STORMS

Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harvey Irma Jose Katia Lee
Maria




And there is that evil caveat, Of SEEN levels of hurricane. There were no satellite cameras in 1950, or 1940 or anytime prior to the late 20th century, there could have been major cat 3 or 4 hurricane that never made landfall and did not show up on ship logs as to documentations. There is evidence of severity after the late 1900's but only since the satellite industry influences.

So Chicken Little as your sky falls from all this newly acquired data where is the data streams prior to 1900? No trend is set on less than a few hundred years data lines.




You've got it bass aswards. Before global communication, the hurricanes where just as likely to be over counted as not counted at all.

It was function of ship encountering one ...and if Harvey was reported east of the Yucatan it would be reported as a new storm in the Gulf of Mexico.
9/22/2017, 3:48 pm Link to this post PM Geezess Blog
 
mais oui Profile
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Re: So if you see what a certain theory predicted happening, right before your own eyes ...


quote:

I wasn't talking about the number of hurricanes per year but the damage caused



well the damage caused is almost entirely dependant on the track they take - no matter how many hurricanes there are or how severe they are if they stay out at sea the damage will be minimal.


quote:

Since 1966, there have been 18 entire hurricane seasons that didn't generate as much total energy as Irma did


 there have been several hurricanes with wind speed equal to or greater than those of Irma

Hurricane Allen (1980)
Hurricane Gilbert (1988)
Labor Day Hurricane (1935)
Hurricane Wilma (2005)
Hurricane Mitch (1998)
Hurricane Rita (2005)

ALL the above equal or better the wind speeds of Irma the following were only slightly less powerful than Irma
Hurricane Andrew 1992
Hurricane Anita 1977
Hurricane Camille 1969
Hurricane Carla 1961
Hurricane David 1979
Hurricane Dean 2007
Hurricane Felix 2007
Hurricane Janet 1955
Hurricane Katrina 2005
Cuba Hurricane 1932


and (unlike high recorded temperatures) they do not seem to get more common or more severe as one approaches the present day


quote:

Irma - produced more energy than many entire seasons of hurricanes



But you could say that about many hurricanes

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9/22/2017, 3:55 pm Link to this post PM mais oui Blog
 
Geezess Profile
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Re: So if you see what a certain theory predicted happening, right before your own eyes ...


"Most of which was coastal as to trade route, a few did make direct crossings but not all that many ships on the waters in those days unless you wanted to invite a sub attack in 1940."

Huh ?
" during World War II... the U.S. Maritime Commission, built almost 6,000 ships."

Just to look at in port ?
9/22/2017, 4:14 pm Link to this post PM Geezess Blog
 
cooter50 Profile
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Re: So if you see what a certain theory predicted happening, right before your own eyes ...


AND they most generally FLOWED out in packs or Groups within CONVOYS in the Atlantic or Pacific.

Those ships traversing the Caribbean did so along COASTAL routes, you know any Safe Harbor, in the event of an event. There are FEW ships sunk in the center of the Caribbean more to the coastal shipping lanes.

Go PRIOR to 1930 then, how many MILLIONS of ships ran the known shipping lanes? Not tonnage, SHIPS.

And the chances of seeing or documenting Cat 4, Cat 5 Hurricanes Are????? Then prior to 1900 then into the 1800's, shipping gets less and less as to volume as well witnesses/documentation.
9/22/2017, 8:21 pm Link to this post PM cooter50 Blog
 
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Re: So if you see what a certain theory predicted happening, right before your own eyes ...


Then, given you MAY be correct, how many hurricane documentations of the 1700's, SHIPBOARD. Then drop to the 1600's then the 15's and so on. If the dramatic documentation exists, Post it. If it does not then your 'Trend line' is dubious at best if not questionable based upon 100, 200 even 300 years(maybe).

The same hold true for your supplying of the unsupported Nuclear Subsidies, Post them if you can otherwise they do NOT exist.

Last edited by cooter50, 9/22/2017, 8:30 pm
9/22/2017, 8:24 pm Link to this post PM cooter50 Blog
 
mais oui Profile
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Re: So if you see what a certain theory predicted happening, right before your own eyes ...


quote:

how many hurricane documentations of the 1700's, SHIPBOARD



I dont know, and I dont care I did refer to any 1700s hurricanes!

quote:

Then drop to the 1600's then the 15's and so on.



Nor did I refer to any hurricans in the 1600s or 1500 for that matter.

The earliest date I made reference to was 1850 , I dont know what happened before 1850, I dont care what happened before 1850

you are arguing against something which was never said!

I didnt even say that there was a rise in the 20th or even 21st centuries again that is something which was only said inside your head!


What I said was-

"there is however some evidence of a recent rise in the frequency of Atlantic hurricanes "

SOME EVIDENCE that is all not that it is the case just that there is evidence to suggest that it is the case


Cooter by all means pick apart what I say 90% of my posts are both considered and informed and I am very prepared to defend them but PLEASE dont pick part what I dont say!

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9/22/2017, 8:47 pm Link to this post PM mais oui Blog
 
cooter50 Profile
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Re: So if you see what a certain theory predicted happening, right before your own eyes ...


Was speaking to Geezes who seems to have a deeper 'understanding' of storms than the rest of us, or considers so.
9/22/2017, 8:49 pm Link to this post PM cooter50 Blog
 
mais oui Profile
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Re: So if you see what a certain theory predicted happening, right before your own eyes ...


I dont think that he has mentioned the 1700s or 1600s either!

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9/22/2017, 8:54 pm Link to this post PM mais oui Blog
 


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