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Re: So if you see what a certain theory predicted happening, right before your own eyes ...


So that off my chest, John I been watching Harvey for like three weeks tomorrow it seems.

You see, I have business interests in the Western Caribbean. The danger potential of this storm has been front and center at the Belize Weather Ministry ?? ... since it was a very wet tropical wave well East of Barbados.

Assuming that you know what was my profession, I go on to suggest my neighbor doing so as well, naturally turn to me expecting me proper sea-captain and answer their concerns about what I'm supposed to be able to do ... not predict a tropical disturbance might do, rather to listen to understand the weather forecasts, specifically relative to this position.

... just like I used be paid to do, on moving target. emoticon

  So, the fact is that somehow, by some means of observation or predictive computer modeling, and most likely some of everything available, "Harvey" was known to be extremely dangerous, needing only to stall ... stroll, over a patch of hot ocean waters.

Now, if were to be paid for doing this I'd stop and call up the data, to stand report as properly expect of Yankee sailor, but it's a rainy Saturday night.

So suffice it to say without the the tracking map , which is off of MY weather channels ... so without being precise about when, exactly, did the the concerned meteorologist's sound the the alarm about this being a climate changing storm ?

An aside:

Indian Monsoons Are Becoming More Extreme - Scientific American
https://www.scientificamerican.com/.../indian-monsoons-are-becoming-more-extreme/
Apr 29, 2014 - The Indian monsoon, a seasonal event that brings key moisture to an agricultural region where about 20 percent of the world's population ...


So who besides me said connect the dots ?
9/1/2017, 3:35 am Link to this post PM Geezess Blog
 
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Re: So if you see what a certain theory predicted happening, right before your own eyes ...


And as you add the data as to urban expansion Urban Heat Sink phenomena, the addition of Millions of human bodies with associated housing, roads, excavations, deforestation, destruction of normal water sheds then add all the detritus you end up with heavier damage due to disruption of normal cycles due to all the above. Proven facts.
9/1/2017, 11:07 am Link to this post PM cooter50 Blog
 
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Re: So if you see what a certain theory predicted happening, right before your own eyes ...


If one adds ALL the items mankind has altered for the course of mankind and discount CO2 altogether you end up with the same climate change models.

As a entity human has bottled up rivers, changed river flows, changed watershed characteristics in human expansion, changed the amount of agriculture to extreme where the sediment runoff has also changed rivers and deltas besides the bare fields of grains or grasses, evaporation rates up or down accordingly but incorrect to natural effect, destroyed or added impounded waters essentially changing weather conditions and development phenomena. We have altered so much of the planets weather inducing base that it is not impossible to see the changes due as well the planet itself changes over time where flows change air/water the atmosphere changes with increase or decrease of woodland, the raging plains fires the native American Indians told of as unwritten history or the miles and miles of buffalo herds changed the climate. The Moon shifts away every year a little further where at some point it will have little effect where the effect of tens of thousands of years ago were different than today.
9/1/2017, 11:55 am Link to this post PM cooter50 Blog
 
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Re: So if you see what a certain theory predicted happening, right before your own eyes ...


Prove it
9/1/2017, 4:59 pm Link to this post PM Geezess Blog
 
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Re: So if you see what a certain theory predicted happening, right before your own eyes ...


Evidence surrounds, no less than what all you can promote as hearsay or someone else stated it. Weather taking odd tracks either around or directly at UHI regions, areas once weather normal now inundated or completely left dry.

And all one needs look at are the delta regions worldwide for the excess sediment flows growing them into the seas faster. Then the disappearing lakes of Europe or Asia as the Aral Sea and the ever popular impoundments of the 20th century where they become their own weather makers as noted by many meteorologists at least in MO.

Human effect upon weather I have no doubt, I just challenge the thinking on .03%(total atmosphere) CO2 going to .05% even .06% doing much of anything where one can see the temperature changes historically off UHI's and the runoff flows in the now navigation impounded/directed rivers unable to dissipate across the bottom lands forced to the seas.
9/1/2017, 5:20 pm Link to this post PM cooter50 Blog
 
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Re: So if you see what a certain theory predicted happening, right before your own eyes ...


Hurricane Irma is next in line, so far forecasters have 43 potential tracks across the Yucatan into Mexico at Texas, into Alabama or Mississippi or up the Eastern Seaboard on any of more than two dozen track lines.
9/1/2017, 8:22 pm Link to this post PM cooter50 Blog
 
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Re: So if you see what a certain theory predicted happening, right before your own eyes ...


quote:

cooter50 wrote:

And as you add the data as to urban expansion Urban Heat Sink phenomena, the addition of Millions of human bodies with associated housing, roads, excavations, deforestation, destruction of normal water sheds then add all the detritus you end up with heavier damage due to disruption of normal cycles due to all the above. Proven facts.



Those things can cause the weather stations to record false readings, but they can't melt glaciers or polar ice.
Only global climate change can do that, through the increase in greenhouse gases.

Something like deforestation that could cause an increase in CO2, is evened out by increased agriculture that absorbs CO2. So that leaves only the burning of fossil fuel as being responsible for the melting of glacial and polar ice.

And when you think about it, burning fossil fuel has to greatly increase CO2 because it is hundreds of million years worth of sequestered carbon being released.
We know humans add 40 billions tons of carbon to the atmosphere every single year.
All you have to do is calculate from the coal, oil, and gas we sell.
9/1/2017, 9:47 pm Link to this post PM Rigby5
 
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Re: So if you see what a certain theory predicted happening, right before your own eyes ...


Where a percentage of that is scrubbed into the oceans by moisture, where is also captured by algae or absorbed into the water. The point is if it had changed in total by percentage points instead of hundredths of A percentage point I could agree. Having dealt with chemists they too agree in hundredths of percent little to no changes at all. Is a exponential exchange, requires more input to derive a change initially where a small change later can achieve a similar amount.

Heat retained in moisture vapor is as bad or considered worse than CO2, clouds retaining heat causing even more evaporation self feeding. Changing the worlds air flows, adding heat by manmade mechanisms, causing the evaporation of ever more water and you have a stronger hypothesis.
9/2/2017, 12:51 am Link to this post PM cooter50 Blog
 
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Re: So if you see what a certain theory predicted happening, right before your own eyes ...


quote:

cooter50 wrote:

Where a percentage of that is scrubbed into the oceans by moisture, where is also captured by algae or absorbed into the water. The point is if it had changed in total by percentage points instead of hundredths of A percentage point I could agree. Having dealt with chemists they too agree in hundredths of percent little to no changes at all. Is a exponential exchange, requires more input to derive a change initially where a small change later can achieve a similar amount.

Heat retained in moisture vapor is as bad or considered worse than CO2, clouds retaining heat causing even more evaporation self feeding. Changing the worlds air flows, adding heat by manmade mechanisms, causing the evaporation of ever more water and you have a stronger hypothesis.



{...
 Global annual mean CO2 concentration has increased by more than 40% since the start of the Industrial Revolution, from 280 ppm, the level it had for 10,000 years up to the mid-18th century,[2] to 403 ppm as of 2016.[3] The present concentration is the highest in at least the past 800,000 years[4] and likely the highest in the past 20 million years.[5] The increase has been caused by human activities, particularly the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation.[6] This increase of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere has produced the current episode of global warming. About 30–40% of the CO2 released by humans into the atmosphere dissolves into oceans, rivers and lakes,[7][8] which has produced ocean acidification.
...}

link to wiki

That is an increase in CO2 by over 30%, which is very significant.

It is true that water, plants and fresh lava will absorb some of that additional CO2, but when water does it kills off water life, plants can't absorb that much, and wishing for new volcanoes is counter productive.
All the coral of the oceans is dying off from CO2 acidification of the oceans. That is one of the things we have to stop.
9/2/2017, 1:09 am Link to this post PM Rigby5
 
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Re: So if you see what a certain theory predicted happening, right before your own eyes ...


When a person wishes to make a distinctive point of indistinctive amounts they resort to percentages and PPM. As to volume in atmosphere CO2 is almost as insignificant as noble gases.

http://climate.ncsu.edu/edu/k12/.AtmComposition

Water vapor in atmosphere has more negated value than CO2 ever has had.

https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/climatescience/climatesciencenarratives/its-water-vapor-not-the-co2.html
9/2/2017, 12:56 pm Link to this post PM cooter50 Blog
 


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